在2022-2023季节，会有很多流感吗？

流感专家中有一个说法：“如果您看过一个流感季节，您已经看到了一个流感季节。”医学博士Pritish Tosh, infectious disease specialist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. “I’ve been studying the flu for over a decade, looking at internal data, external data, public health trends, and every year I’m surprised at whatvwinchina德赢does,” he says.

Given all these curveballs, infectious disease specialists are wary about making predictions about future flu seasons. But Dr. Tosh and others note that, if recent history is any indication, the United States can expect an increase in flu activity after two years of fewer cases.

继续阅读以了解更多有关未来几个月可能会发生的事情以及与流感抗争的方法。

Covid-19预防措施阻止了其轨道中的流感

这pre-pandemic 2019–2020 flu season was considered moderate, with about 35 million people in the United States becoming infected with influenza. This led to 380,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, according to the疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）。

但是，一旦1920年春季，19020年春季，Covid-19开始袭击美国，流感就消失了。Tosh说：“这是一些预防行为变化的开始，例如人们避免拥挤的地方，人们的社交疏远以及这种事情。”“流感案例暴跌 - 就像，掉下了悬崖。”

对于2020–2021流感季节，CDC仅记录2,038例流感病例，估计有700例死亡流感并发症。

这Easing of COVID-19 Restrictions Caused an Uptick in Flu Cases

Tosh说，2021–2022流感季节是另一个奇怪的季节。随着COVID-19的限制继续消失，越来越多的人开始摘下面具，在室内收集，否则回到了“正常”生活，流感再次开始流传。

这CDC据估计，在2021 - 2022年流感季节中，有8至1300万人因流感生病，在3月和2022年4月的病例中令人惊讶的是，这是自1982年以来季节后期第一次达到该季节的峰值。Brammer, MPH, head of the CDC’s domestic influenza surveillance team, in an interview withNBC新闻。Typically, the flu season peaks between December and February, theCDC笔记。

Tosh说：“总体而言，住院的数量比我们过去几年（流行前）所看到的要少，但持续时间肯定不是我们习惯的。”

有证据表明未来的流感季节充满挑战

在美国或世界各地的COVID-19限制很少，传染病专家正在看到证据表明流感将卷土重来。

As a predictor for what’s going to happen in the United States and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, scientists look to flu trends in the Southern Hemisphere, where flu season begins six months earlier. “It’s not always an accurate forecast for our season, but if the same flu strains are dominant, things tend to look about the same,” says Tosh.

今年夏天，世界卫生组织（WHO）据报道，在南半球的某些地区，特别是在南部非洲，澳大利亚和新西兰等温带地区，流感活动增加。

根据澳大利亚冬季，今年7月，流感病例超过大流行的发生率，每周的病例数高于该国的五年平均水平。澳大利亚卫生和老年护理部。

In addition to these high rates, the Australian metrics showed that flu season began in April, about two months earlier than usual, but it also ended a little earlier than what would normally be expected. Will the flu season also begin early in the United States? “It’s still difficult to predict,” Tosh says.

我们对流感的自然免疫力可能会降低

虽然没有人愿意生病流感，但在过去两个流感季节中缺乏这些病毒的暴露可能是有问题的。

Pre-pandemic, about 10 percent of the U.S. population would get influenza in a typical flu season, says Tosh. “Those people will get a bounce in their immunity, and there will also be a subsequent bounce in population immunity,” he says — meaning the community as a whole would benefit from the extra immunity, including people who never got the flu.

即使是暴露于流感但没有生病的人也有前进的优势，因为他们的免疫系统制作的抗体“记住”了该病毒以及如何攻击它。

“由于最近几个流感季节如此温和，因此可能会减少流感的人口免疫力，因此这将有利于更糟糕的流感季节，但是很难说，” Tosh说。。

大流行带来的一些转变可能有助于控制流感

这2019冠状病毒病大流行has had a lasting impact on some people’s behaviors and attitudes, and that might work to our collective favor in the fight against the flu. “For example, although many people have gone back to in-person work, there are going to be more people working from home than before the pandemic,” Tosh says.

尽管有60％的美国工人有要求他们离开房屋的工作，但是那些有选择在家工作的人经常继续这样做，至少在一部分时间里，February 2022 Pew Research poll。More new jobs are allowing employees the option to work from home, too.

托什说：“我们还看到，当他们生病时选择上班的人很少，这是一件好事。”流行前，即使在与某种感冒或其他传染病作斗争时，也经常被视为“荣誉徽章”，即使在与某种感冒或其他传染病作斗争时也可以工作，但是现在，如果您这样做，您可能会发现自己被同事所避开。

Tosh说：“我认为您会看到更少的病人出现在工作，因为社会压力有所不同，这种变化可能会持续很长时间。”

另一个好兆头：今年的流感疫苗可能是循环菌株的匹配

A variety of data, including information about what flu viruses are circulating in different areas of the world at different times, are analyzed by the WHO and theCDC确定在流感疫苗中包含哪些菌株。

这scarcity of flu strains in the 2020–2021 season made that task especially difficult, and the flu vaccine was not a great match for the virus last year, says Tosh.CDC数据表明，这只会使一个人的流感轻度病例的机会减少约16％。通常，流感疫苗根据CDC, but can still reduce the risk for severe illness and hospitalizations.

This year, the strains circulating in the Southern Hemisphere were well matched to the vaccine, says Tosh. “That doesn’t automatically predict a good match in the Northern Hemisphere, but it’s a good sign,” he adds.

避免流感及其并发症的最佳方法是最好的方法

Tosh说，对流感的最佳保护是获取流感疫苗。他说：“有时我们会忘记，在通常的流感一年中，成千上万的美国人死于流感，其中很多是由于严重的并发症所致，这通常是可以预防疫苗的。”

“我希望我们从Covid中学到的一件事是，即使您接受了疫苗接种疫苗，疾病的严重程度也会减少。获取流感疫苗会降低由于流感，尤其是在高危人群中导致住院和死亡的风险。” Tosh说。根据该老年人，患有某些医疗状况的人和幼儿患流感并发症的风险更高。CDC。

In addition to getting the flu vaccine, there are other ways to protect yourself from influenza. TheCDC建议采取预防措施以阻止细菌的传播，其中包括以下措施：

• 避免与病人密切接触。
• When you are sick, try to limit your contact with others.
• 如果您患有流感状的疾病，请在发烧消失后至少待在家里24小时。
• 当您的鼻子和嘴巴遮住鼻子和嘴巴咳嗽或打喷嚏，然后扔掉纸巾并洗手。
• Wash your hands often and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
• 清洁和消毒的表面和可能被流感细菌污染的物体。